Cool air is going to flood into the eastern United States late this week, ushering in much cooler temperatures for the weekend. And, as that happens, frost is possible, which could end the growing season if it is widespread enough.
Temperatures dropping into the 30s are likely by Friday morning, and perhaps on Saturday morning, as well. There will be a brief and slight warm-up on Sunday, but the coldest air may actually come early next week, before a more sustained warm-up begins.
So exactly how cold will it be? That’s hard to say, this far in advance. For now, the National Weather Service is going a little warmer than some models suggest on Friday morning, with a low of 42. That will be plenty warm enough to stave off any threat of frost for the end of the week.
But Friday is going to feel starkly different from the rest of the week, setting up a threat of frost Friday night into Saturday morning. The high on Friday is likely going to struggle to get out of the mid 50s, after a high well into the 70s one day earlier. By Friday night, temperatures may drop into the mid 30s, with areas of frost possible. Saturday’s high, like Friday’s, will struggle to get out of the mid 50s.
The forecast for Sunday is slightly warmer, with a high around 60 degrees. But a replenishing shot of cold air is likely on Monday, and one weather model — the NWS-operated GFS — is currently projecting our first freeze of the season on Tuesday morning, with a low just below 32 degrees.
Temperatures may not return to the 60s until Thursday of next week.
The normal temperature for this time of year is upper 60s during the afternoon, and low 40s at night.
The average date of the first freeze — when temperatures drop to 32 or below — in Oneida is October 13, so a light freeze on Tuesday morning would actually be a week behind schedule. October 13 is the exact date of the first freeze last year, when the temperature dropped all the way to 29, although for the previous years prior to that, the first freeze didn’t come until October 21 or later.
In 2014, the first freeze in Oneida was on October 5.