It felt really nice outside today, and it will be even warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as “Indian summer” interrupts our prelude to winter. But the next cold front is lurking close at hand.
Rain will return to the forecast on Thursday, setting the stage for the next blast of colder air, which will arrive for the weekend. By Saturday, high temperatures will likely be only in the low 40s, nearly 30° colder than they are early this week, and there is a slight chance of snow in the forecast.
How much rain? Not a lot. The GFS shows less than an inch of rain while the ECMWF shows less than half an inch here on the northern plateau. Those are the two main models at this stage. The rain will primarily be associated ahead of the cold front on Thursday. The ECMWF currently has it arriving shortly after lunch on Thursday, while the GFS is a bit later. The timing will no doubt change a bit between now and then. The National Weather Service’s forecast currently has a 20% chance of rain in the morning, increasing to 70% as the day progresses.
How much cold? The current forecast from the NWS has a high of 42° on Saturday and a high of 45° on Sunday. That would be our coldest temperatures so far if they verify, but models have struggled somewhat this fall by over-stating the nature of the cold air. The ECMWF model is several degrees warmer than the GFS. In fact, the ECMWF takes us well into the 50s on Sunday. So, it remains to be seen just how cold we’ll be. As for low temperatures, it doesn’t look too terribly cold. The NWS forecast takes us to 29° on Saturday night and 30° on Sunday night.
How much snow? Almost none. There’s only a very slight chance of “rain and show showers” in the forecast for both Sunday and Sunday night. The chance of precipitation is 20%. We very likely aren’t going to see any accumulation. The ECMWF shows a dusting to an inch of snow over the northern plateau Sunday night and Monday, while the GFS shows none. The ECMWF is almost certainly overdone, even though those snow totals are meager. Any minor accumulations that occur will likely be along the peaks of the mountains to our east, where temperatures will be colder and the terrain more favorable for squeezing snowflakes out of the atmosphere.
How long will the cold air last? Not too long. The GFS has us back into the 60s by the middle of next week, before another cold front approaches the region.
Any disruptions? Unless you have outdoors Veterans Day plans Thursday afternoon or evening, probably not. Oneida plays at South Greene in the second round of the playoffs Friday evening, and it looks like there will be only a slight chance of rain during the game.
The bottom line: Very warm temperatures to start the week are going to give way to quite chilly temperatures to end the week, with highs only in the 40s by the weekend, if the current forecast holds. There is a slight chance for a few snowflakes to be flying Sunday night, but not enough to amount to anything. Another warm-up is anticipated next week, as our fall season continues to be warmer-than-average overall.