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Eye to the Sky: A wet fall break takes shape

October is the driest month of the year in this part of the world, but it’s not going to start off that way.

The first week of October is going to be quite wet. And the warm, dry pattern that has been in place is going to break down just in time for teachers and students who are going on fall break next week.

Friday and Saturday will see a continuation of warm, dry weather. But the upper level ridging that’s been delivering these weather conditions will begin to break down over the weekend. The high pressure will slide off to the east of the Appalachian Mountains, and we’ll actually see rain chances start to increase by Saturday evening, though the greater rain chances will hold off until Sunday.

By Sunday, a cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest, and that will enhance rain chances Sunday and Monday. Behind that, general troughiness in the atmosphere will keep unsettled weather across most of the eastern U.S. for the next several days. And there are indications that a closed upper level low will develop somewhere in the region. Those are infamous for meandering slowly about and creating several days of wet weather.

So, as a result, every day may not be a wash-out next week, but just about every day is going to feature above-average rain chances. Currently, the National Weather Service’s forecast calls for at least a 70% chance of rain Sunday-Tuesday, with likely rain chances continuing Wednesday and Thursday.

Rain chances will likely continue into Friday, as well.

Exactly how much rain falls remains to be seen, because it’ll depend on the exact way the pattern evolves, but for now it looks like general amounts of 3-5 inches are a good bet.

With the rain will come a return to normal temperatures. Highs are likely to only be around 70° after Sunday.

Eye to the Sky is a weather blog of the Independent Herald, written primarily by IH publisher Ben Garrett. Views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be considered substitute for official advisories, watches or warnings from the National Weather Service. For the latest, most up-to-date forecast information, see weather.gov/mrx.
Ben Garrett
Ben Garrett is Independent Herald editor. Contact him at bgarrett@ihoneida.com. Follow him on Twitter, @benwgarrett.

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