It’s been 11 days since rainfall of any significance fell in Scott County, but we’ll return to a daily chance for rain showers later this week.
The National Weather Service’s forecast for Oneida returns a slight chance for showers as early as Tuesday, but a greater chance for rain will move in on Wednesday and continue through the end of the week, thanks to the influence of the next tropical system that will impact the U.S., Tropical Storm Nicholas.
Nicholas will make landfall in Texas on Tuesday. With a tropical high pressure system positioned off the Atlantic Coast, we’ll be seeing southerly winds usher in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and Nicholas will enhance that flow. With the afternoon heat serving as a trigger, we’ll see diurnally-driven thunderstorms beginning Tuesday.
After Nicholas moves inland, ridging that’s in place over the Southeast will cause him to become fairly stationary, meaning he’s going to stick around for a while, simply sitting and spinning and increasing rain chances for the entire region. As long as Nicholas’s remnants are positioned to our southwest, we’ll see a strong inflow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico pumped into East Tennessee. That’s going to result in daily chances for thunderstorms, some of which could result in heavy downpours.
As of now, the NWS has increased rain chances in the forecast from Wednesday through Friday. How the pattern evolves through the weekend remains to be seen, but we’ll probably see daily chances of thunderstorms continue, thanks to the continuation of a southerly flow that pumps in moisture from the Gulf.
Sadly, we’re also moving into a pattern that is going to produce persistent ridging over the eastern U.S., which will bathe much of the country in above-normal temperatures for at least the next month. I’ll go into further detail in a later blog post, but essentially we’re looking at an increased possibility of a combination of above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall here on the Cumberland Plateau through the rest of September and into early October.