Ordinarily, August is one of the driest months of the year in this part of the world. October is the driest month, followed by September, November, and then August.
But there’s been nothing dry about our weather pattern recently.
Today marks the fifth consecutive day with measurable rainfall in Oneida, and it has rained 7 of the last 9 days. That is a streak that’s going to continue to build, at least in the near-term. Rain showers on Wednesday will be hit-or-miss, but coverage of rain showers will build again on Thursday and Friday, with pretty much everyone seeing rain at some point those two days.
The current culprit is the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, which is currently meandering slowly inland after making landfall along the Gulf Coast yesterday. By tomorrow, Fred will have cleared the South and will have less of an impact on our weather, but there will be a shortwave system approaching from the Mississippi Valley to our west, which will help usher more moisture into the region, leading to more rain Thursday and Friday.
With atmospheric precipitable water values being near two inches to end the week, it’s going to be a very moist, very humid environment with a threat of flash flooding wherever the strongest showers and thunderstorms set up.
It looks like the wet pattern will continue into the weekend, with a frontal boundary approaching from the west that could continue to drive numerous showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.
For now, the positive about all of this rain is the cooler temperatures. We’re only forecast to get into the mid 70s today, and even though it’s been a hot month overall, it hasn’t been unbearable. After all, we’ve only hit 90° one time in August, which means there have only been four 90° days all summer. That’s pretty incredible. (Believe it or not, our August temperature overall has been below normal.)
It looks like a drier pattern will begin to build in next week, with surface-based high pressure finally moving into the Southeast. That should offer a welcomed reprieve from the rain, and it’ll also mean warmer temperatures. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting warmer-than-average temperatures and drier-than-average weather next week.
With the tropics becoming very active, it’s possible — if not likely — that we’re going to see a wetter-than-average fall season, with multiple threats of tropical storms along the Gulf Coast states between now and November.