- Advertisement -
Home Blogs Eye to the Sky Eye to the Sky: Tropical system will bring increased rainfall to East...

Eye to the Sky: Tropical system will bring increased rainfall to East Tennessee

Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the northern Cumberland Plateau this afternoon, and what we’re seeing today is likely a precursor for things to come. Rain and storms are likely the next several days, with both an approaching cold front from the north and the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred from the south playing an impact on our weather.

Let’s start with Fred. He’s still a long ways away, currently centered over Cuba as a tropical depression. But he’s expected to restrengthen into a tropical storm once he reemerges over the open sea waters, and he’ll ride up Florida’s west coast over the weekend, likely making landfall somewhere around Apalachicola to Panama City Beach by early Monday.

The remnant tropical depression, once this storm moves inland, is currently expected to move through central Alabama and into Middle Tennessee by late Tuesday and early Wednesday. As it does, a deep southerly flow will develop over much of Tennessee, pulling in rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. If the tropical depression takes the path it’s currently expected to take, East Tennessee will be in an ideal position to see appreciable rainfall from the system.

Before that happens, though, an atmospheric trough will develop over the eastern U.S. and a cold front will sag southward before stalling somewhere over Kentucky, just to our north, over the weekend. That should enable a plentiful supply of Gulf moisture and provide an environment that allows for widely scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.

- Advertisement -

For now, the National Weather Service has a 70% chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for the northern plateau region both Saturday and Sunday.

Exactly how this first period plays out is still in question. Some models keep thunderstorms in check over the plateau on Saturday, before increasing rain chances on Sunday. The short-term HRRR model, in particular, shows only isolated thunderstorms over the plateau tomorrow afternoon, with more numerous thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky and the Smokies.

The NAM is also a little skimpy with rain coverage tomorrow, and shows better rain chances on Sunday.

There’s going to be plenty of instability in the atmosphere this weekend, so it won’t take much to trigger thunderstorms either day. And how these storms develop over the weekend could impact what we see from the remnants of Fred early next week. Some isolated areas have already dealt with flooding early in the week. If we see heavy thunderstorms develop like that over the weekend and saturate the ground, the stage could be set for at least some minor flooding from Fred’s remnants Monday-Tuesday.

The bottom line: Rain and thunderstorms become likely each day after today, due first to an approaching cold front and then to the tropical remnants of Fred as he moves north out of the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms are likely to be more widespread on Sunday than on Saturday, but all areas are susceptible to see storms on Saturday, as well. Heavy rain is the main threat from the tropical depression, and there could be some minor flooding concerns early next week. The heat wave we’ve experienced this week is about to snap, with temperatures going back to normal for this time of year.

Eye to the Sky is a weather blog of the Independent Herald, written primarily by IH publisher Ben Garrett. Views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be considered substitute for official advisories, watches or warnings from the National Weather Service. For the latest, most up-to-date forecast information, see weather.gov/mrx.
- Advertisement -
Independent Herald
Contact the Independent Herald at newsroom@ihoneida.com. Follow us on Twitter, @indherald.

Join our mailing list

We will not sell or spam your email address.

- Advertisement -

Stay Connected


The Latest

Soccer: Oneida claims region title with win over Cumberland Gap

A thick fog settled across Jane Terry Hoffman Field Thursday evening, and from it emerged Kamryn Kennedy with what might have been the best...

Pedestrian struck and killed while walking on U.S. 27 in Oneida

A Georgia woman was struck and killed while walking on Alberta Street in north Oneida Monday evening, Oct. 18. According to a report filed by...

Tennier Industries begins mass layoff

HUNTSVILLE — One of Scott County’s largest employers is in the midst of a mass layoff. Tennier Industries, the community’s top textiles manufacturer, began informing...

These are the roads the Scott County Road Department plans to pave

HUNTSVILLE — Scott County Road Superintendent Kelvin King on Wednesday provided to the Independent Herald a list of roads that he proposes to pave...
- Advertisement -

Related Stories

Update: Major (if short lived) cool-down on the way

It's been unusually hot for October this year. The average temperature, so far, has been a whopping 8 degrees above normal. But that's going to...

Eye to the Sky: A major cold front this way cometh

The much-above-normal temperatures that the East Tennessee region is currently experiencing will come to an abrupt halt — at least temporarily — this weekend,...

Eye to the Sky: Put up the pumpkin spice, break out the flip-flops

If you like crisp fall weather, with frost on the pumpkins and sweater weather while leaves are still clinging to the trees, you're likely...

Eye to the Sky: A wet fall break takes shape

October is the driest month of the year in this part of the world, but it's not going to start off that way. The first...

Eye to the Sky: Here comes fall!

At midnight Wednesday morning, the temperature was hovering around 70° on the northern Cumberland Plateau. It was also 70° in Nashville, which is usually...
- Advertisement -