If you like your summer weather without scorching-hot temperatures and with plenty of rain, you’re loving Summer 2021, and it doesn’t look like the pattern is going to break any time soon.
The trade-off, because of the abundant moisture that is fueling above-average rainfall this summer, is high humidity that makes being outside rather uncomfortable. But this pattern also means an absence of 90-degree days that feel like they’re being delivered straight from the pits of hell. We’ve already had four days this month where the high temperature stayed below 80°, and we may have some more of those this weekend. Throw in eight days last month with sub-80° temps, and that’s 12 days since the start of meteorological summer with temperatures in the 70s or cooler! By contrast, we’ve only had two days with temperatures of 90° or above.
There are only slight chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms the next two days, which is noteworthy because it marks the first time in a week that we’ve had mostly sunny days with low rain chances. For the most part, none of the past seven days have been rain-outs, but there have been nearly constant threats of rain.
A drier and more stable air mass is in place for the next couple of days. And while the summer sun and terrain of the Cumberland Plateau and the mountains will serve as the usual triggers for seasonal thunderstorms, there is plenty of dry air in place to help keep rain chances down.
And after this brief reprieve, it appears we’ll return to a daily routine of likely thunderstorm chances by Friday, with chances for storms increasing through the weekend.
That’s because yet another cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest by the weekend. Cold fronts typically begin stalling out to our north by the time we get into the summer months, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this year, as the ridging that we often see over the Southeast has been weaker than normal, allowing for deeper penetration of these frontal boundaries and more troughing features in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
For now, it appears that most of the rain will hold off on Friday, but we probably won’t be as lucky Saturday and Sunday, and likely chances for showers and storms continues into Monday and Tuesday, as well.
As is always the case this time of year, it’s impossible to predict in advance where the strong thunderstorms will set up. Not everyone will see rain every day; localized areas could see a lot of rain.
The other side of the upcoming pattern is that with increased cloud cover and the possibility of cooling thunderstorms, we could see some more days with sub-80° temps this weekend. For now, the National Weather Service is forecasting a high in the 80s every day in Oneida, but depending on how things shake out we could easily see a day or two or three where we fail to make it to 80°.
So far, our temperature for the month is running a little more than two degrees below normal. We’ve had 4.36 inches of rain so far this month in Oneida. Typically we’ve received only 2.47 inches of rain by this point in the month.