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Eye to the Sky: Wet, soggy start to 4th of July weekend may be in store

Independence Day itself may see rain chances decrease, but the holiday weekend leading up to the 4th of July is increasingly looking like a soggy one, with cooler-than-average temperatures, thanks to a cold front and a tropical low pressure system that will coincide over the entire Southeastern U.S. region.

Diurnal thunderstorm chances will increase through this week, with rain likely by Thursday and Friday. This could lead to several inches of rainfall over the span of just a few days, although we are dry enough that widespread flooding should not be a concern.

The National Weather Service is currently forecasting an 80% chance of rain and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. Significant rain is likely both of these days. This is in association with a cold front that will sag far enough south to impact our region heading into the end of the week.

The question then becomes how quickly the cold front and the associated deep moisture will exit the region. The NWS is currently forecasting lower chances of rain both Saturday and Sunday. This forecast is based at least in part on the ECMWF forecast model from across the pond, which is quite progressive with the cold front and has it clearing the area by Saturday.

The NWS’s own GFS model, on the other hand, is more lethargic with the front, and has it clearing our region much more slowly. That would result in increased rain chance into the weekend, with significant rain continuing into Saturday.

However, even the GFS clears most of the precipitation out by Sunday, meaning the Independence Day holiday itself may be dry. Pleasant temperatures are likely; we probably won’t hit 80 degrees this weekend, and could be in the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday.

The forecast will fine-tune itself as the week progresses.

Eye to the Sky is a weather blog of the Independent Herald, written primarily by IH publisher Ben Garrett. Views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be considered substitute for official advisories, watches or warnings from the National Weather Service. For the latest, most up-to-date forecast information, see weather.gov/mrx.
Ben Garrett
Ben Garrett is Independent Herald editor. Contact him at bgarrett@ihoneida.com. Follow him on Twitter, @benwgarrett.

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