Tropical Storm Cristobal has dumped copious amounts of rain on parts of Mexico and appears to be taking aim at the Gulf Coast for this weekend. And, based on its current trajectory, the storm may ultimately impact Tennessee.
Cristobal became a tropical storm on Tuesday but has since weakened back to a tropical depression due to land interaction, with 35 mph sustained winds as of late Thursday morning. Strengthening is expected, however, as the storm re-emerges over the open water of the Gulf of Mexico after departing the Yucatan Peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center is currently projecting Cristobal to re-emerge over the ocean waters late Friday, then gain speed as it moves almost due north towards the Gulf Coast. The forecast is for the tropical storm to make landfall along the Louisiana coast late Sunday or early morning, and by early Tuesday the remnant tropical depression is expected to be just west of Memphis.
Although there remains plenty of time for the forecasted track of the storm to change, such a trajectory would mean an eventual impact for the northern Cumberland Plateau region, though not a substantial one.
Any impact of the tropical storm to the northern plateau region would likely occur late Tuesday through Wednesday. In the plateau region, the main impact would be increased rainfall chances, with rainfall totals depending on the exact track of the remnants of the tropical storm. Severe weather potential would likely be limited to West Tennessee, unless the storm track shifts further east.
Substantial rainfall is not currently expected.
Ahead of the storm system’s arrival, subsidence on its leading edge will likely produce dry conditions on Monday and early Tuesday before rain chances begin to increase.