We’ve seen snow showers result in a dusting of snow a couple of times this winter, but have received little more than a trace of snow thus far. That could change this weekend, though, as it looks like we’ll have our best chance so far of accumulating snow.
For now, accumulations look minor, with rain transitioning to snow as a low pressure system begins to pull away from the region and cold air spills in. Most of the moisture will be moving away as the colder air arrives, but there will be enough dynamics with the arrival of the cold air mass to support snow showers that continue well into the day on Saturday.
The National Weather Service’s Morristown weather forecast office is currently predicting an 80 percent chance of rain transitioning to snow Friday night and a 50 percent chance of snow on Saturday. In its forecast discussion this afternoon, NWS-Morristown says this: “Snow accumulations are currently expected over the area, especially the Plateau, southwest Virginia and Mountains of far east Tennessee. Will watch the evolution of the system closely.”
NWS-Nashville, meanwhile, is predicting 1-2 inches of snow for all of Middle Tennessee, including the western side of the Cumberland Plateau (Crossville and Jamestown).
For now, it looks like the main show will be to our west. Parts of West Tennessee and perhaps western Middle Tennessee could receive quite a bit of snow from this system, depending on how things shape up. The rest of us are likely looking at accumulations, but those accumulation will probably be on the light side, as the NWS-Nashville forecast alludes to.
At the moment, the GFS forecast model shows 2-3 inches of snow for the northern plateau, but it’s sort of an outlier. The Canadian model shows less than an inch of snow, while the European model shows just about an inch. Several models show a significant snowstorm for areas west of Nashville, but the storm placement is a little too far west for us to receive a bonafide winter storm here on the plateau, keeping us in the warm sector for most of the duration of the event.
This system is still being resolved, though, so there will likely be changing to meteorologists’ thinking between now and Friday.
Another storm system could be shaping up for Tuesday, bringing another threat of wintry weather to the region.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.