- Advertisement -
Home Blogs Eye to the Sky Mini-drought to end with wet weekend | Eye to the Sky

Mini-drought to end with wet weekend | Eye to the Sky

Weeks of dry weather look to come to an abrupt halt this weekend, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Nate move north out of the Gulf of Mexico and interact with a frontal boundary that is currently sliding across the nation’s interior.

Scott County has not experienced measurable precipitation since Sept. 22 — and only five-one hundredths of an inch of rain since Sept. 20 and only 1.1 inches of rain since Sept. 6.

The result? Despite a very wet start to September and a wetter-than-usual summer overall, local streamflows have dropped below average for the first time in months. The Big South Fork River was running at just 52 cubic feet per second Thursday evening; Clear Fork was running at just 13 cfs. And the U.S. Drought Monitor has “abnormally dry” conditions — one step below an official drought — creeping into parts of East Tennessee.

But all that looks to change this weekend, as the tropical system could bring an entire month’s worth of rain to the northern Cumberland Plateau in just a couple of days.

Keep in mind that when we saw “an entire month’s worth of rain,” we’re speaking in October terms. October is the driest month of the year in this part of the country. In an average October, Oneida receives just a little more than three inches of rain.

Still, it looks like it could be quite wet, as the National Hurricane Center’s current projected track for Nate brings the tropical depression almost directly over the region.

Forecast models relied on by meteorologists are coming into close alignment with the track of the system, which enhances confidence in the weekend’s forecast. The National Weather Service’s Morristown office has introduced 50 percent rain chances to the forecast from Saturday night into Tuesday, and this afternoon’s area forecast discussion highlighted those rain chances.

In general, models are trending away from what were once serious rain totals for the region (the GFS computer model, which is perhaps the most accurate forecast model operated by the American government at this range, was once projecting as much as six inches of rain for the general Scott County area). The greatest rains will occur wherever the tropical remnants interact with the frontal boundary, and that looks like it will be slightly to our west, according to most models.

- Story Continues Below -

Join our mailing list

Get headlines delivered directly to your inbox with the Inside Scott Newsletter.

We will not sell or spam your email address.

Still, a solid two to three inches of rain are not at all out of the question. And since the actual tropical depression won’t knock on our door until Monday, it looks like it’ll be a wet start to fall break for area students. Rain chances are considerable until Tuesday evening.

In this afternoon’s forecast discussion, the NWS’s Morristown office had this to say:

“The main path of this storm and the location of the frontal boundary will likely be where we see the highest precipitation amounts over the weekend and into next week. Most models are keeping the main band of the heaviest rain off to our west, but we can’t rule out some heavy rain here if the track of the storm shifts or the front makes further eastward progress than we anticipated. Currently think we could see widespread precipitation amounts of 1-3 inches in our area, but it’s possible some places could see up to 4 or 5 inches. This rain will fall over several days and with our recently (very) dry conditions we’ve experienced the rivers and lakes should be able to handle a good amount of water.”

It may be Thursday before truly dry weather returns to the region.

Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.

- Advertisement -
Ben Garrett
Ben Garrett is Independent Herald editor. Contact him at bgarrett@ihoneida.com. Follow him on Twitter, @benwgarrett.
- Advertisement -

Stay Connected

9,311FansLike
1,280FollowersFollow
1,641FollowersFollow

Join our mailing list

We will not sell or spam your email address.

The Latest

Covid-19 hospitalizations continue to decline in Knox County

Even as the number of active coronavirus cases continues to grow slightly, and fatalities increase, the number of hospitalizations related to Covid-19 in Knox...

Reactions: Candidates respond to Thursday’s election results

Thursday's off-year election has come and gone in Scott County. In the only three contested races locally, Carlene Jeffers Terry was elected to the...

Hughett wins 2nd District constable seat with two votes

HUNTSVILLE — It might be a record low vote for a victorious candidate, but the 2nd District constable position was decided by two write-in votes...

Related Stories

2019 makes a run at hottest September ever

September 2019 may or may not stand alone as the hottest September ever in Oneida — that’s to be determined — but it will...

Summer’s death grip: Temperature records are falling as ‘Sizzling September’ unfolds

The Scott County Chamber of Commerce used to have a marketing line for September: Sizzlin' September. The terminology was retired a few years ago, but...

Eye to the Sky: Tropical Storm Dorian takes aim at Florida’s east coast

The fourth named storm of the 2019 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin continues to get its act together as it bears down on...

Days are numbered for extreme heat, as summer wanes | Eye to the Sky

Summer is on the downhill slide to autumn. This isn't a prediction; you don't need fancy computer models and forecasts to make this call. You...

A big cooldown appears to be in store | Eye to the Sky

It's still hot outside — a heat advisory is in effect for the western half of Tennessee today, but the eastern half will be...
- Advertisement -