Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday and on Friday, as a cold front approaches the northern Cumberland Plateau region.
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., currently has Scott County included in a “slight risk” area for severe weather each day as the cold front moves southeast.
To put that into perspective, the SPC’s “slight risk” outlook means there is a 15 percent chance for severe weather within 25 miles of any point. The National Weather Service’s Morristown weather forecast office places the tornado threat as “very low,” but added in a weather briefing this morning that an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The primary threats will be wind gusts up to 70 mph, large hail up to half-dollar-sized, and isolated flooding.
The threat window will begin Thursday afternoon, with the formation of scattered thunderstorms across the region. By late Thursday night or early Friday, a line of storms is expected to pass through the region ahead of a cold front that is going to usher in fall-like weather for the weekend.
Wind shear is expected to be significant with the system, but it remains unknown whether various factors will line up to enhance the risk of severe weather across the northern plateau region.
Ahead of the system, one last hot day is expected on Wednesday, with high temperatures topping out around 90 with abundant sunshine. Behind the system, much cooler air settles in, with lower humidity in place for the weekend. Currently, the GFS forecast model shows high temperatures on Friday and Saturday not getting out of the 70s, with a high of only about 80 on Sunday. The NWS’s official forecast for Oneida calls for a high of 79 on Friday, 80 on Saturday and 82 on Sunday. The humidity and warmth will begin to rebuild early next week.
Eye to the Sky is a weather blog by Independent Herald editor Ben Garrett. Garrett is a weather enthusiast who has long blogged about interesting weather on his personal website. He is not a professional forecaster or a meteorologist and information on this blog should not be considered a substitute for forecasts, advisories or other products from the National Weather Service.